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NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONSTAKESPREDICTORCHALLENGER
858.No Republican will be President of the USA before December 30, 2039.19 years
02021-02039$400
$200Michael d de la MazaJason W Galbraith
853.A bitcoin will be worth less than $1000US by the end of 2025.5 years
02020-02025$2,000
$1,000Josh M LevineThomas R Sohmers
848.Between 2021 and the end of 2030, annual fossil fuel emissions (excluding carbonation) will not exceed annual fossil fuel emissions (excluding carbonation) from 2019.10 years
02020-02030$2,000
$1,000Ted NordhausKen Caldeira
833.Renewable Energy will comprise at least 50% of the energy in Australia's National Electricity Market no later than the end of 2030.11 years
02020-02030$1,000
$500Simon Holmes à CourtJonathan A Sutanto
829.Over a ten-year period commencing on July 1, 2020, and ending on June 30, 2030, a portfolio of index funds invested broadly in US and International equities will outperform a portfolio managed by a sophisticated individual investor selecting stocks and funds.10 years
02020-02030$10,000
$5,000Mitch Tuchman - Rebalance, LLCJeff S. Heller
Long Now Foundation Website
780.Slaughterhouses will be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.31 years
02019-02050$400
$200Dean MullenJeff T Kaufman
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONSTAKESPREDICTORCHALLENGER
858.No Republican will be President of the USA before December 30, 2039.19 years
02021-02039$400
$200Michael d de la MazaJason W Galbraith
853.A bitcoin will be worth less than $1000US by the end of 2025.5 years
02020-02025$2,000
$1,000Josh M LevineThomas R Sohmers
848.Between 2021 and the end of 2030, annual fossil fuel emissions (excluding carbonation) will not exceed annual fossil fuel emissions (excluding carbonation) from 2019.10 years
02020-02030$2,000
$1,000Ted NordhausKen Caldeira
833.Renewable Energy will comprise at least 50% of the energy in Australia's National Electricity Market no later than the end of 2030.11 years
02020-02030$1,000
$500Simon Holmes à CourtJonathan A Sutanto
829.Over a ten-year period commencing on July 1, 2020, and ending on June 30, 2030, a portfolio of index funds invested broadly in US and International equities will outperform a portfolio managed by a sophisticated individual investor selecting stocks and funds.10 years
02020-02030$10,000
$5,000Mitch Tuchman - Rebalance, LLCJeff S. Heller
Long Now Foundation Website
780.Slaughterhouses will be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.31 years
02019-02050$400
$200Dean MullenJeff T Kaufman
768.Berkshire Hathaway's total shareholder return including dividends and possible spin-offs will be greater than the S&P 500 total return including dividends over the 20 years period of May 3rd, 2019 to May 3rd, 2039.20 years
02018-02038$408
$204Zach S GreenwaldAnsgar J Brenninkmeijer
765.By Dec 31st 2020, fewer than 30% of Americans with home broadband will be on packages that are significantly biased to specified sites (i.e. non-net-neutrality packages - for clarity, we define these as packages that throttle all sites other than a named list to < 10Mbps)3 years
02018-02021$400
$200Will CritchlowMike Bestvina
4njbets Tvg Home
764.The Equal Rights Amendment to the U.S. Constitution will be passed by the end of 2023.5 years
02018-02023$500
$250Bruce E WatsonSteve M Midgley
Long Bets.org
763.There will be at least one 2022 FIFA World Cup match which will have more people watching live via virtual reality than people watching it in person.5 years
02018-02023$500
$250Swathish R AyyappanJohn Palmer
Betting On World Events
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